Oilsands production expected to rebound after pandemic-linked 2020 slump

Oilsands production expected to rebound after pandemic-linked 2020 slump

CALGARY — A new report predicts Canadian oilsands production will have its biggest annual decline on record this year, dropping by an average of nearly 175,000 barrels per day due to issues associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

But research firm IHS Markit says the step back in 2020 isn’t expected to greatly affect the rest of its 10-year forecast.

It says it expects oilsands production to reach 3.8 million barrels per day by 2030, down slightly from a previous forecast for 3.9 million bpd, but still a 1.1 million bpd increase from the 2020 projected production.

Oilsands production is anticipated to rise over the second half of 2020 and into 2021 as barrels curtailed due to low prices come back online and capacity that has never been fully utilized ramps up.

It says oilsands output by 2022 could be 300,000 bpd higher than in 2019 if the Alberta government eases its oil curtailment program introduced in early 2019 to better align production with limited pipeline takeaway capacity.

It says most of the growth in production will come from small investments in projects where some capital has already been deployed — less than a third will come from new greenfield operations or project expansions.

“Despite the COVID-induced shocks of 2020 the longer-term expectations for Canadian oilsands are not far off from what was expected prior to the pandemic,” said IHS vice-president Kevin Birn.

“The scale of installed production capacity that exists today, the lack of material production declines from existing operations in the medium-to-long term and the ability to optimize and leverage current operations support growth.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 28, 2020.

The Canadian Press

Oilsands

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

1 in 7 Albertans have been tested for COVID-19

56 additional cases Thursday, 1,107 active cases remain in the province

Sylvan Lake man’s documentary getting limited run in Alberta theatres

Scott McDermott’s documentary will be in 14 theatres, including Sylvan Lake and Wetaskiwin

Masks now mandatory in schools for Grades 4-12, staff

Students, teachers and staff will be provided with two reusable masks to be worn in schools

94 new cases of COVID-19 in Alberta on Wednesday, two more deaths

1,146 active cases with 9,891 recovered cases

August most popular month for vehicle thefts, RCMP warn

10,000 vehicles stolen in Alberta last year

Protestors for Indigenous Lives Matter gather in Wetaskiwin

Protestors gathered along 56 St Wetaskiwin, Alta. August 4, 2020 for Indigenous Lives Matter.

Answers to 5 common questions facing families for the COVID-19 school year

COVID-19 protocols are likely to vary even more at the school board level, and even and school-to-school.

Other communities can learn from Sexsmith: AUMA president

Alberta Urban Municipalities Association is an advocacy group for urban municipalities

Proposed oil and gas assessment changes could have big impact on municipal revenues

Croup representing urban municipalities is concerned about the outcome

‘Do our lives count for less?’: COVID-19 exposes cracks in disability aid

In July, Parliament approved a $600 payment for people with disabilities facing additional expenses during COVID-19

Two females arrested for carjacking in Leduc; sword and bear spray used as weapon

Wetaskiwin and Maskwacis female arrested for carjacking.

Alberta man’s body recovered from Okanagan Lake after five-day search

‘The depth of the water, as well as the topography of the lake, made the recovery of the deceased very challenging’ - RCMP

Feds look to finalize deal with airlines amid contact tracing concerns

Feds look to finalize deal with airlines amid contact tracing concerns

Dwindling B.C. bamboo supply leaves Calgary Zoo biologists worried about pandas

Zoo has been trying to send pandas back to China since May

Most Read